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Showing posts from April, 2019

Predictions for the April Tesla Autonomy Event

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I've written down my predictions for the upcoming Tesla autonomy event.  Writing these things down helps codify your thinking.  Making it public helps keep you honest. Right or wrong, I'll learn something important come April 22rd.

The TL;DR summary:

No features will be tied to HW 3.0.They announce the HW3.0 switch over- probably starting in Q3.
[Updated 4/7, H/T @ElmerFUDD] - it appears they may already be making some cars with HW3. Perhaps the 4/22 date gives them 3 weeks to clear out older cars before announcing the new HW?The game will be to announce L2 features and pretend like L4/L5 equivalents are coming soon.We will not see the legal disclosures. Elon will largely promise the world, but when things launch all liability will be on drivers.Tesla Network is back, but in the vaguest possible way.They will demo something every AV could do 4 years ago, except it's not reliable enough to actually do L4/L5.
The State of Play Before we dive into the predictions, we need an o…