Economic & Climate modeling

On the subject of modelling - here's a good post pointing out the similarities between the Economics and Climate, both the inherent uncertainty and the political climate:

No Disagreement Whatsoever

Comments

Unknown said…
Vampires in the Enchanted Castle casino - FilmFileEurope
Vampires in the Enchanted air jordan 18 retro racer blue store Castle Casino. Vampires in the Enchanted Castle Casino. Vampires in the Enchanted Castle air jordan 18 retro yellow clearance Casino. where can i buy air jordan 18 retro men blue Vampires 안전한 놀이터 in the Enchanted Castle air jordan 18 retro men blue online site Casino. Vampires in the Enchanted
March 17, 2022 at 1:32 AM
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Why Tesla's FSD Approach is Flawed

The only folks more prone to rants than myself are Tesla fans talking about neural nets. So I thought, why not combine the power of the rants? I'll rant about Tesla fans ranting about the power of neural nets! To get myself good and wound up, I listened to a recent Tesla Daily  Podcast  about Full Self Driving (FSD) and Neural Nets. Go ahead, listen to it.  I'll wait. It's actually not that bad. "Jimmy D" is the guest and he talks with some authority about neural nets. He doesn't get anything terribly wrong on the basic tech. Everything he says about how Tesla plans to exploit it seemed reasonable to me. If you are a Tesla skeptic, it's a good way to understand Tesla bull thinking. Of course, like everyone else who's familiar with the AV space, I think Jimmy is 100% wrong about Tesla's prospects. He's a typical Tesla fan- smart, technically savvy, and without any detailed domain knowledge. He's drawn in by the surface logic of Tes
Read more

Predictions for the April Tesla Autonomy Event

Image
I've written down my predictions for the upcoming Tesla autonomy event.  Writing these things down helps codify your thinking.  Making it public helps keep you honest. Right or wrong, I'll learn something important come April 22rd. The TL;DR summary: No features will be tied to HW 3.0. They announce the HW3.0 switch over- probably starting in Q3. [Updated 4/7, H/T @ElmerFUDD] - it appears they may already be making some cars with HW3. Perhaps the 4/22 date gives them 3 weeks to clear out older cars before announcing the new HW? The game will be to announce L2 features and pretend like L4/L5 equivalents are coming soon. We will not see the legal disclosures. Elon will largely promise the world, but when things launch all liability will be on drivers. Tesla Network is back, but in the vaguest possible way. They will demo something every AV could do 4 years ago, except it's not reliable enough to actually do L4/L5. The State of Play Before we dive into the pred
Read more

What bothers me about Keynesians

I keep reading these blogs talking about Keynesian economics and NGDP, etc... What bothers me most is that it seems like Keynesian solutions can be be applied regardless of the underlying reality. That is, the solution is always more spending and more inflation, without regard to what is actually going on. For instance Matt Yglesias talks about Italy's debt issue : Since your debt is denominated in nominal terms in your own currency, all you need is for your nominal GDP to grow fast enough to ensure that your debt:GDP ratio shrinks. And since shrinking debt:GDP ratio reduces the interest burden on your budget, if you can hold that primary surplus flat soon enough you’ll be making enormous progress. Alternatively, your central bank might be so stingy as to insist on NGDP growing so slowly that your debt:GDP ratio rises despite the primary surplus. That means your interest burden rises and your situation spirals into disaster. Except no country’s central bank would be that insane
Read more